Welcome to the Paradigm Shift
It’s been a couple of weeks since our latest strategy call with clients, and I’m still reeling from all the insights we uncovered and shared.
During the call, we highlighted entire regions stepping up and showing fresh leadership—more international students coming to the U.S. than ever before from countries that had barely been on the map. We spotlighted unsung heroes carrying entire continents.
Wait. Did you just say “unsung heroes carrying entire continents”?
Are we talking about a complete reshuffling of which countries are leading the charge in sending students abroad?
Yes. Yes we are.
This is that moment when the environment stops resembling what it once was. You can no longer throw a dart at the map and expect to hit a country with growing outbound mobility. You can no longer ignore the countries you've always ignored and rely on the countries you've always relied on.
In fact, during the Q&A portion of our April Strategy Call, someone asked, “What’s going on with country X?”—and the room filled with murmurs of, “I never would’ve guessed that.”
Welcome to the paradigm shift.
The Story of the Two Kings
Let’s say you knew absolutely nothing about international recruitment strategy. Zilch. But by some wild stroke of luck, you picked only China and India to recruit from.
Congratulations, you just became king.
That’s why we jokingly call these two: The Two Kings.
Since 1999, the number of students coming to the U.S. from India and China has grown far faster than the total number of international students from anywhere else.
We first shared this chart in our 2024 annual Open Doors call with subscribers. But in case you missed it, here's the gist:
It tracks the ratio of students from India and China versus all international students. If the orange line trends down and to the right, it means the rest of the world is growing faster than the Kings.
But spoiler alert: that is not what's happening.
That orange line is climbing up and to the right—meaning China and India have been the best recruitment strategy out there. That’s the uptrend. That’s why they’re the Kings.
But Here’s the Twist
Each month, we host strategy calls at Enrollment Charts to help our clients track emerging trends in international student mobility. These calls are how our partners stay ahead of the curve—especially in a world where Trump 2.0 looms and mobility to the U.S. carries new risks.
In our latest call, we dropped a bit of hard reality::
The Two Kings? They’re in ill repair.
China has been heading lower since COVID and India is on the lam with a significant drawdown this year.
So what do we do now—if China and India are no longer the clear drivers of growth?
You either:
Start throwing darts at a map and pray, or
Go to the data and build a strategy rooted in signal, not noise.
Hint: When the “all” stops working, the best strategy is to find which parts are doing the heavy lifting—and double down. That’s called market selection. And, Enrollment Charts is damn good at it.
Let me put that into context for you.
What’s Going on With Poland?
Ted came up with this handy-dandy badge system—our EC (Enrollment Charts) Score. It runs from 0 to 100. A perfect 100 means top-tier potential. It’s a complicated formula (we won’t bore you), but the takeaway is this: the EC Score helps cut through the noise and get you straight to “Where do I need to go?”
Poland? It scored a 98 in February.
That’s a big deal—and it’s just now flashing signs of a trend reversal. In other words: we’re early. Really early.
The Charts
Let’s look again at that Two Kings vs. The World chart. But this time, we're showing February visa issuance as a year-over-year measure.
That ain’t pretty.
Now let’s look at Poland. This chart shows an early uptrend, possibly the beginning of a breakout. To a data nerd like me, it's poetry in motion.
But there’s a catch. Look at the actual number of visas issued. They’re tiny. So either Poland is about to explode—or we’re going to need more Polands. A lot more Polands. If we want to make up for the losses from China and India, we’ll need a full bench of countries stepping up.
Final Thoughts
We’re entering an era where the best-informed, most systematic market selectors will outperform the competition—especially those still clinging to outdated strategies or flying blind.
In this environment, I’d argue that Enrollment Charts' services are only going to become more valuable—because you’re being trusted by your institution to make sense of all this. Many of our clients already have a head start in the world’s hottest markets. That’s the value of strategy powered by data, not hope.
Because at the end of the day:
Data is king.
—Jay
